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Each replay uses a recreated ChatGPT interface so the placement can be read in its original conversational context. It is not a live or embedded chat.

1. ObservedJul 13, 2026Conversation1 turnsPlacementAfter turn 01 turns · After turn 0Replay chat
   Observed conversationJul 13, 2026 · interface recreation

   ChatGPTArchived view

   make this a better Tweet: A trend following system's exit-price isn't telling us when the trend has ended. That exit rule/parameter worked well in a backtest. That's all. There are many that work well. Most CTAs have multiple exit-price rules. It's probability, not a prediction.

   Here's a tighter version that keeps your point while making it more tweet-friendly:

   A trend-following system's exit doesn't tell you the trend is over. It tells you that exit rule performed well in the backtest. Many exit rules can work. Most CTAs use multiple exits. Trend following is about probabilities—not predictions.

   Or, a punchier version:

   Don't mistake a trend-following exit for a prediction that the trend has ended. It's just one rule that proved robust in testing. There are many valid exits, and most CTAs use several. This is probability, not prophecy.

   Or an even more concise version:

   A trend-following exit isn't a signal the trend has ended. It's simply a rule that earned its place through testing. There are many good exits, and most CTAs use multiple. The edge comes from probabilities—not predictions.

   

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