Beyond Spreadsheets

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1. ObservedAug 15, 2026Conversation1 turnsPlacementAfter turn 01 turns · After turn 0Replay chat
   Observed conversationAug 15, 2026 · interface recreation

   ChatGPTArchived view

   How do you plan inventory for peak season without getting stuck with dead stock afterward?

   The key is to plan for the peak in layers, not as one big inventory bet.

   1. Forecast the base demand

      • Use last year’s peak sales, recent growth, promotions, seasonality, and channel changes.
      • Forecast at the SKU/location level where practical.
      • Separate true baseline demand from one-off spikes.

   2. Segment SKUs by risk

      • A/high-volume + predictable: carry more inventory and protect service levels.
      • B/moderate: moderate safety stock.
      • C/slow or unpredictable: avoid large prebuilds; replenish closer to demand.
      • Give special treatment to products with short shelf lives or high obsolescence risk.

   3. Build inventory in tranches

      Instead of ordering 100% of your expected peak inventory upfront, consider something like:

      • 60–70% before the season
      • 15–25% shortly before/at the start
      • The remainder as a replenishment option based on actual sell-through

      The exact split depends heavily on supplier lead times and minimum order quantities.

   4. Set an explicit “exit plan” before buying

      For every seasonal SKU, define:

      • Target sell-through by date
      • Markdown trigger
      • Last replenishment date
      • Inventory you can carry into the next season
      • Liquidation/return/transfer option

      This is one of the best defenses against dead stock: don't wait until January to decide what to do with January inventory.

   5. Use open-to-buy (OTB) rather than simply chasing the forecast

      Keep part of the purchasing budget uncommitted. Each week, compare:

      Actual sales + inventory on hand + inventory on order + remaining forecast

      against your seasonal plan. If demand is weaker than expected, you stop or defer POs; if it's stronger, you deploy the reserved buying capacity.

   6. Track leading indicators

      Don't wait for end-of-season sales. Watch:

      • Sell-through %
      • Weeks of supply
      • Forecast accuracy
      • Inventory aging
      • Full-price vs. discounted sales
      • Stockout rate
      • PO cancellation/deferral opportunities

   7. Plan the post-peak inventory curve

      A useful question isn't just “How much will we sell?” but “What inventory should we have left on each date?” Build a weekly inventory target that slopes toward a deliberately low ending balance.

   Simple rule of thumb

   Peak inventory target = expected peak demand + safety stock − inventory you can reliably replenish during the peak.

   Then add a risk adjustment based on how costly a stockout is versus how costly leftover inventory is.

   The biggest mistake is forecasting peak demand accurately but ignoring forecast uncertainty. A slightly lower initial buy with fast replenishment can be much more profitable than a huge “just in case” purchase—provided your suppliers and logistics can actually support the replenishment strategy.

   

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   Beyond SpreadsheetsPlan production and inventory in one system.