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1. ObservedJul 13, 2026Conversation1 turnsPlacementAfter turn 01 turns · After turn 0Replay chat
   Observed conversationJul 13, 2026 · interface recreation

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   According to economists, what is the chance of a recession in 2025

   There wasn't a single consensus estimate among economists during 2025. Recession probabilities shifted throughout the year as economic data and policy developments changed.

   Here's how some prominent forecasts compared:

   Source	Estimated U.S. recession chance (2025)
   Bankrate survey (January 2025)	26% by the end of 2025
   Bankrate survey (April 2025)	36% over the next 12 months
   J.P. Morgan Research (May 2025)	40%, reduced from an earlier 60% after trade tensions eased

   Overall, the range among mainstream economists was roughly 25% to 40% for much of 2025, with the higher estimates appearing during periods of heightened uncertainty over tariffs, inflation, and slower growth.

   A few key points:

   • Early in the year, many economists believed the odds were relatively modest (around 1 in 4).
   • In the spring, concerns about trade policy and persistent inflation pushed many forecasts higher, into the mid-30% to 40% range.
   • Even with elevated risks, most forecasters still expected the most likely outcome to be slower economic growth rather than a recession.

   So if you're looking for a single summary number, a reasonable characterization is:

   Economists generally estimated about a 30–40% chance of a U.S. recession during 2025, with estimates peaking near 40–45% during periods of heightened economic uncertainty.

   

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